![]() Here all the coldest summers on average and the snowfall departure from average in the winter that followed: You’ll notice the same “sometimes but not always” thinking applies to the winters following the warmest summers on record in Cincinnati:ĭoes a colder than average summer mean we’ll mean a snowier than average winter is coming? Not necessarily. Many of the winters following the coldest summers on record were colder than average, but that wasn’t always the case. The numbers in blue highlight a slightly cooler than average winter, the purple numbers show a much cooler than average winter, the tan numbers spotlight a slightly warmer than average winter, and the pink numbers highlight a much warmer than average winter. When you compile a list of the coldest summers on record in Cincinnati and look at the temperature departure from average in the winter (December 1st to January 31) that followed, here’s what you’ll find: Weather records for Cincinnati go back to November 1, 1870, so it’s tough to have a “top 10” or “top 20” year for snow, rain, cold, or heat. ![]() If summer 2013 had ended at midnight (on August 20th), summer 2013 (beginning June 1st) would only be the 35th coldest on record in Cincinnati. Climatologists and meteorologists often make seasonal forecasts based on analogs, or years that have a similar setup to a certain pattern however, there is rarely – if ever – a perfect match. As a result, it is very difficult to look at one season and use it to forecast another. Many of the oscillations that occur in the atmosphere (that help to drive major weather systems) usually complete an oscillation on the scale of days, weeks, or months. Global patterns change frequently throughout the year. I was at a speaking engagement last last week, and one of the few questions that came up was about what the fall and winter forecast. ![]() There have have been a lot of questions surfacing recently about whether the lack of heat this summer means the winter of 2013-2014 will be colder or snowier than average. ![]()
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